Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 144.78 price level coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. This resulted in a 20-pip decline in the pair. However, the Federal Reserve's decision halted the bearish trend and led to a rise in USD/JPY.

Yesterday's trading ended with renewed pressure on the yen, which intensified following the Fed's announcement on interest rates. Contentious statements by the U.S. President regarding the Middle East also fueled increased demand for the dollar, as market participants are still uncertain whether Washington intends to actively engage in resolving the conflict or is merely showing force. Hints from the Fed about maintaining interest rates at current levels for a longer period will continue to support the dollar and pressure the yen. U.S. actions in the Middle East will also play a major role, as they will determine the scale of conflict escalation and its impact on the global economy. Traders must remain cautious and diversify their portfolios amid heightened volatility and uncertainty.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 145.19 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 145.68 (thicker green line). Around 145.68, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions, anticipating a 30–35 pip pullback. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and deep dips.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 145.02 twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal—expected upside targets: 145.19 and 145.68.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a breakout below 145.02 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 144.58, where I plan to exit the short position and immediately open a long position, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound. Bearish pressure may quickly return to the pair today.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 145.19 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a bearish reversal—expected downside targets: 145.02 and 144.58.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.