The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart has become more complex in recent months. A corrective downward structure formed and completed near the $75,000 level. After that, a fairly strong upward movement began, which could be an impulsive uptrend. The second wave of this segment appeared very shallow and unconvincing. Therefore, I consider the current section to be impulsive. If this is indeed the case, then the structure is still missing a convincing fifth wave, whose peak should be above that of wave 3. Based on this, I expect one more final upward impulse. A successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level would indicate a continuation of the upward movement, which could potentially extend further under certain conditions.

The news background supports Bitcoin, but not consistently. I would say that market participants either interpret any news as favorable for the leading cryptocurrency or simply ignore it altogether and continue buying. We are witnessing the formation of an upward trend driven by emotion, demand, and faith in Bitcoin's future sky-high valuation. The rise from $75,000 to $111,000 exhibits typical signs of a rapid, speculative increase in price. Such movements are often followed by a subsequent decline.

In recent weeks, BTC/USD has been trading between $101,560 (76.4% Fibonacci) and $109,970 (100.0% Fibonacci). The wave structure of the upward movement that began on April 9 appears unfinished – it's still missing a convincing fifth wave, as the entire section looks impulsive. Some analysts had expected that an escalation in the Middle East conflict or the Fed meeting might influence Bitcoin's price, but that didn't happen. The market's reaction to the military conflict between Israel and Iran was weak. There was no reaction to the Fed's meeting at all. Based on this, I believe we are still likely to see a clear fifth wave. The escalating situation in the Middle East is a negative factor for Bitcoin, as investors tend to seek "safe havens" during times of geopolitical tension. In such periods, risk assets usually fall out of favor. However, Bitcoin demand has hardly declined over the past week, suggesting that the market is still willing to keep buying.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is near its historical highs. I understand that many economists and analysts continue to predict $150,000 and even $200,000 Bitcoin levels this year, but few of them explain why that should happen. "Growth in institutional demand" may certainly be a contributing factor, but in my view, stronger reasons are needed to expect a 1.5x–2x rise. I lean toward the view that Bitcoin doesn't have much room left for growth.

Overall Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the upward wave structure is still developing, though it has an odd character and weak fundamentals. The news background was not the cause of Bitcoin's sharp rise, and the $110,000 level has capped buyer strength for the fourth consecutive time. Ignoring the wave count, I would say a new downward trend is forming. Therefore, a new at least corrective wave can be expected with targets below $100,200. Still, we have not seen a definitive fifth wave.

On a larger wave scale, the upward trend is continuing, but its internal wave structure remains highly ambiguous due to the near-complete absence of corrective waves.

My Key Analysis Principles

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are harder to interpret and are often subject to revision.
2. If there's no clarity in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.