Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The only report of the day will be the UK retail sales report. No economic data will be released today in Germany, the Eurozone, or the United States. Thus, it appears we are in for a rather dull day with low volatility.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is also nothing noteworthy among Friday's fundamental events. Christine Lagarde delivered two speeches in Kyiv yesterday but did not mention the European Central Bank's monetary policy in either one. All three major central bank meetings have already taken place, so we will unlikely hear any significant new information from representatives of the ECB, Bank of England, or Federal Reserve soon. The key topic for the market remains the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

Also topping the list of market concerns is the Trade War, which shows no signs of resolution. Other important themes include civil unrest in the U.S., Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill," the presence or absence of progress in trade deal negotiations with 75 countries, new tariffs, and increases to existing ones. The U.S. dollar could theoretically receive support from the Israel–Iran confrontation, in which the U.S. is directly involved; however, we believe that the dollar has already extracted all possible benefits from this event.

Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to show limited movement, as virtually no news is expected. However, an upward movement began in both pairs yesterday, which may suggest that the dollar is on the brink of a new prolonged decline.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.