See also
The 1.1800 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this level occurred while the MACD was in the oversold zone, which allowed buy scenario #2 to unfold; however, the trade closed with a loss as the euro continued to decline.
Yesterday's release of positive ISM Manufacturing Index data supported the U.S. dollar. Statements by the Federal Reserve Chair that the current trade policy of the Trump administration does not yet warrant interest rate cuts also contributed to the dollar's strength.
Today, we expect the unemployment data from the eurozone and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. These events could trigger a spike in volatility. Unemployment data serve as an important barometer of the European economy, reflecting its stability or emerging difficulties. A decline in unemployment could strengthen confidence in the eurozone's economic growth and support the euro. Lagarde's speech—if it addresses monetary policy—will provide the market with guidance. Investors will carefully analyze her words for clues on potential interest rate adjustments. Clear signals that the ECB intends to intensify its fight against inflation due to the euro's strength could lead to a decline in the EUR/USD pair.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Buy the euro today at around 1.1811 (green line on the chart) targeting a rise to 1.1859. At 1.1859, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro on the rebound, aiming for a 30–35-pip pullback from the entry level. You can expect the euro to remain strong today, following the release of positive data.
Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1789 while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. One can expect growth toward the opposite levels 1.1811 and 1.1859.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the level of 1.1789 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1742, where I intend to exit the market and buy on the rebound (expecting a 20–25-pip bounce in the opposite direction). Downward pressure on the pair may return if today's data disappoints.
Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1811 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels 1.1789 and 1.1742.
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*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
The price test at 1.1678 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However
The price test at 147.14 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. Today's data showing a slower decline
The price test at 1.3532 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound and resulting
The price test of 1.3598 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason
The price test of 1.1725 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero line. This confirmed the validity of the euro
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