Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of 1.1745 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The euro continued to strengthen against the dollar, particularly amid the absence of U.S. reports. Investors refocused on the prospects of U.S. monetary policy, and the lack of current information only heightened concerns about the slowing pace of the U.S. economy, fueling expectations for a softer policy from the Federal Reserve.

Today, in the first half of the day, the likelihood that the German import price index will affect the euro's exchange rate is low. Although this indicator is somewhat important for assessing inflation, its impact on the currency market is usually short-lived. Currently, investors are paying more attention to signs of economic recovery in the region and the European Central Bank's plans. Any positive news in this area will support the euro.

Regarding the intra-day strategy, I will rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I will buy the euro today if prices reach around 1.1781 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1805. At 1.1805, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on a bounce, targeting a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Growth of the euro can only be expected after favorable news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1769 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. I can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1781 and 1.1805.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1769 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1750, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1781 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. I can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1769 and 1.1750.

Chart Annotations:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make very cautious decisions regarding market entry. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.