After geopolitical factors receded into the background, EUR/USD traders have again turned to macroeconomic data, which, for the most part have favored the US dollar. The US dollar index updated a six-week high, and the major currency pairs reconfigured accordingly.

For example, EUR/USD closed the trading week at 1.15 for the first time since November last year. The pair has shown downward dynamics for the third week in a row, as clearly evidenced by the W1 timeframe. The coming week could become the fourth in this sequence if key macro indicators do not disappoint dollar bulls.

The most important day for the greenback is Thursday, January 22. On that day, the final GDP estimate for the US (third quarter 2025), the core PCE index, and Unemployment Claims will be published. If all these reports come in the "green zone," the dollar will receive substantial support, putting additional pressure on EUR/USD.

According to preliminary forecasts, the final GDP estimate will match the initial estimate at 4.3%. Consensus forecasts and nowcast models (in particular, Atlanta Fed GDPNow) point to resilient US economic dynamics. Recall that key support for GDP came from strong consumer spending and a positive contribution from net exports, which looked fairly resilient in the preliminary data. Potential downside risks to the headline figure are mainly tied to possible revisions to business investment and inventories. But most analysts believe they are unlikely to lead to a significant revision.

In other words, this key macro indicator for EUR/USD is most likely to remain at 4.3%, providing support to the greenback.

Also, on January 22, we will learn the November value of the core PCE index. As is known, this is one of the Fed's key inflation indicators. Preliminary forecasts call for the measure to slow to 2.7% after easing to 2.8% in the previous month (October).

Due to the prolonged shutdown, the November report will be published only in January. Nevertheless, the release remains highly significant as the last key inflation indicator before the Fed's January meeting.

Recall that the other most important inflation reports showed a rather mixed picture: CPI was flat while PPI accelerated. The core PCE could tip the scales either way. The release will either provide additional support to the greenback or put pressure on it if it prints in the "red zone" (i.e., below 2.7%).

Another important Thursday report is the Unemployment Claims report. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose only to 198,000 for the past week (the lowest value of the indicator since early December). Forecasts call for the figure to increase to 203,000 next week. The dollar will receive meaningful support if, contrary to forecasts, Unemployment Claims remain below 200,000. De facto, the difference between an increase to 199,000 and 200,000 is small, but the psychological factor will play a role.

The aforementioned macro reports are the most important for the US currency.

The euro, in turn, will react to PMI and ZEW indices. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank head Joachim Nagel could trigger some volatility in EUR/USD, but only if they signal hawkish/dovish intent (which is unlikely).

Preliminary forecasts indicate that the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany will rise from 45.8 to 49.9. This would be a serious claim to victory: if the indicator prints at the forecast level (or in the green zone) it will renew a half-year high. The euro-area sentiment index is also expected to rise to 35.2 (from 33.7), i.e., to the highest level since July last year.

Positive dynamics are also expected from PMI indices in key European countries. In particular, Germany's manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 47.6 points. The fact of a "reversal" after a two-month decline is important here. The German services PMI is expected to remain in expansionary territory — forecast to rise to 52.5. Such an optimistic outcome should provide background support for the euro and, accordingly, EUR/USD buyers.

Thus, the economic calendar for the coming week is full of important events for EUR/USD traders. If US macroeconomic data come in the green zone, the pair will be under significant pressure, regardless of the tone of European releases. In that case, the pair will settle below the support level of 1.1600 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1) and open the way to the next price barrier at 1.1530 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on W1).

But if US GDP growth is revised down, core PCE slows more than expected, and Unemployment Claims come in well above 200,000, then EUR/USD buyers will be able to organize a corrective retracement toward the resistance level of 1.1650 (upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1).