Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.27 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for buying the dollar. However, the pair did not manage to develop a strong upward move.

It is clear that traders paused their buying ahead of the release of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data and the unemployment rate. Nonfarm employment dynamics will be a decisive factor for the Federal Reserve. Positive growth in this indicator signals expanding business activity, increased production volumes, and consequently higher demand for labor, which would also support the U.S. dollar against the yen. The unemployment rate, the second most important indicator, reflects the share of the working-age population. A decline in unemployment typically correlates with a strong labor market and may contribute to rising inflation, which would also strengthen the dollar.

In addition, attention should be paid to the dynamics of average hourly earnings. Wage growth may indicate increasing pressure on employers, who have to raise compensation to attract and retain skilled workers. This, in turn, can affect consumer spending and inflation expectations. On the other hand, slow wage growth or stagnation may signal weakness in the labor market or low productivity, which would be negative for the economy and the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 153.45 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 154.27 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.27, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). The pair can be expected to rise today after strong U.S. labor market data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.10 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 153.45 and 154.27 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break of the 153.10 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.34, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak reports.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.45 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 153.10 and 152.34 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.