See also
04.06.2026 08:51 AMThe test of the price level at 1.1612 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 pips.
The rise in tensions in the Middle East, driven by ongoing clashes between the US and Iran, along with heightened security measures in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other countries in the region, has sparked renewed interest in the US dollar. Geopolitical instability, which traditionally enhances the appeal of the US dollar as a safe asset, has once again made its presence felt.
Today, the first half of the day promises to be busy with important events that could significantly impact the currency market. Attention will be focused on the data regarding changes in retail sales volume in the Eurozone for April. Forecasts indicate a possible contraction of this indicator, which may signal a slowdown in consumer activity in the region. A decline in retail sales is often a sign of economic cooling.
Alongside the publication of these reports, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. Given the current geopolitical situation and ongoing inflation challenges, it can be expected that the central bank's head will provide a rather stern assessment of inflation. Lagarde is likely to reaffirm the ECB's commitment to combating rising prices and may hint at tightening monetary policy if inflationary pressures do not ease.
In terms of intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.1622 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1651. At 1.1651, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Strong growth in the euro can only be expected after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1605 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1622 and 1.1651.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1605 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1575, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 pips from that level. Pressure on the pair will return only if the reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1622 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1605 and 1.1575.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
