On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair remains relatively resilient below the 1.1600 level and continues to attract buying interest. This has helped offset part of the losses recorded during the previous session, when the pair came under significant selling pressure and fell to weekly lows. Nevertheless, a substantial recovery in the euro is unlikely in the near term due to uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and ahead of Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Market sentiment improved after Lebanon and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement following talks in Washington, reducing the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East. This development weakened demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.

In addition, growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could raise interest rates by 25 basis points later this month are providing support to the euro and helping sustain current price levels.

However, bullish sentiment remains limited due to the lack of meaningful progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and the renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf. On Tuesday, U.S. military officials reported successfully intercepting Iranian missiles and drones launched toward Kuwait and Bahrain, followed by retaliatory strikes against Iran's Qeshm Island. Iran subsequently launched attacks against U.S. military facilities in Bahrain in response to those actions.

These developments have increased geopolitical risks and contributed to higher oil prices, which have resumed their upward trend over the past three days, reviving concerns about inflationary pressures.

Investors appear convinced that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will maintain a hawkish stance amid rising energy prices driven by military conflict. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, traders currently assign a 50% probability to at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year.

These factors, combined with ongoing tensions involving Iran, are likely to continue supporting the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency. As a result, caution is warranted before initiating aggressive long positions in EUR/USD. Traders may prefer to wait for the release of the monthly U.S. employment report—widely known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)—for additional clues regarding the Federal Reserve's next policy steps. The report could significantly influence U.S. dollar performance and provide fresh directional momentum for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, oscillators remain in negative territory, indicating that bears retain the upper hand. The pair is trading below all major moving averages, which further supports a bearish outlook. However, it is worth noting that both the 100-period and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are moving sideways, suggesting that the broader market remains range-bound rather than firmly trending.