Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro

A test of the 1.1556 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.1556 led to the execution of Scenario #2 for selling the euro, but no major downward movement followed.

Next, we are waiting for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI excluding volatile components such as food and energy. Both indicators are expected to show positive momentum, which traditionally supports the U.S. dollar. However, not only the absolute level of inflation matters, but also its changes compared to previous reporting periods. A sustained acceleration in inflation will be interpreted as a signal for tighter monetary policy, which would support the dollar.

It is also worth recalling recent statements from Federal Reserve representatives, which overall point toward a more hawkish stance in the future. If these expectations are not confirmed, the dollar may weaken significantly against the euro.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered at a price level around 1.1562 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1594. At 1.1594, I plan to exit the market and also consider short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth will only be possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: Euro purchases may also be considered after two consecutive tests of the 1.1544 level, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1562 and 1.1594 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1544 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1515, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return in the case of a sharp increase in inflation. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: Euro selling may also be considered after two consecutive tests of the 1.1562 level, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.1544 and 1.1515 may be expected.

What Is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Ahead of important fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if risk management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.