If military actions in Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stretch into June, global oil prices could surge to a dazzling $200 per barrel, analysts at Macquarie Group warn.

A team led by Vikas Dwivedi laid out two possible scenarios for the commodities market. The base case, “Quick Peace,” which analysts assign a 60% probability, assumes that the conflict ends by the end of the next month, allowing logistics to recover and prices to get back on track rapidly.

The alternative scenario, “Protracted War” (40% probability), suggests that fighting continues throughout Q2. In that case, according to the estimates of the investment bank, inflation‑adjusted oil prices could reach record highs and comfortably top $200 per barrel.

“If the strait remains closed for a prolonged period, prices will have to rise so high that they physically ‘destroy’ historically massive volumes of global oil demand,” Macquarie’s analysts state. They argue that the timing of reopening the waterway and the magnitude of actual physical damage to regional energy infrastructure will be the fundamental factors determining the long‑term fallout for global markets.

The report underlines the unprecedented scale of the current logistics crisis. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a price shock not only in crude oil but also in refined products. Before the escalation, roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and 5 million barrels per day of refined products transited the route. Macquarie concludes that it is physically impossible to instantly replace those volumes via alternate routes or reserve capacity.