In their weekly report, Global Energy Weekly, analysts at BofA Global Research have noted a critical reduction in maritime traffic within the area of the Middle Eastern conflict. According to experts, crude oil transportation volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from 20 million to less than 2 million barrels per day. This situation threatens the global economy with a structural crisis comparable to the significant upheavals of the 1970s.

The restrictions on supplies from the Persian Gulf have led to a systemic break in established logistics chains. The prolonged blockage of this waterway makes it impossible to physically deliver products to key refining centers. Bank strategists warn that the current state of the market could shift to extreme price volatility once oil supplies in transit are depleted.

In light of the escalation, BofA has revised its baseline forecasts for energy prices. The average price of Brent crude for 2026 is now expected to be $92.50 per barrel, with a global supply deficit potentially reaching 4 million barrels per day in the second quarter. The market is witnessing an increasing divergence between producing countries accumulating reserves and consumers depleting them.

The use of alternative routes through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE provides only partial compensation for the losses incurred. A sustained deficit will require forced reductions in global energy demand. Experts believe that an average consumption reduction of approximately 5% year-on-year is necessary to balance the system. Investor concerns now extend beyond price to the physical availability of crude oil. 

The global supply chain is expected to reach a critical point within the next four weeks, with markets closely monitoring attempts at international intervention to restore safe shipping before buffer stocks are fully depleted. Without timely de-escalation, fuel shortages in the transportation and petrochemical sectors could trigger stagflation, hampering global economic growth.