Global oil prices have experienced a sharp decline due to an increase in the number of tankers transiting the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. July futures for benchmark North Sea Brent crude fell by 4.58%, reaching $95 per barrel. Concurrently, futures for US crude oil WTI for the same month plummeted by 5.4%, hitting $88.80 per barrel. Analysts surveyed by international agencies attribute this trend to market participants starting to price in significant progress toward resolving the protracted crisis surrounding this key transportation artery.

The price slump occurred despite ongoing high tensions in the Middle East and new military actions. On May 26, US forces conducted a series of strikes on targets near the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel notably intensified its bombings in Lebanon. The cessation of these hostilities is traditionally seen as a key condition for Tehran to enter into any potential peace agreement. However, market traders opted to focus on the tangible increase in physical crude flows through the newly accessible maritime route, considering resumed logistics a more critical factor than the ongoing local confrontations.

Against this backdrop, Iranian security officials are continuing to issue strong and combative statements. In particular, Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters spokesman Ibrahim Zolfaqari publicly urged the international community to prepare for a surge in oil prices to $200 per barrel. He emphasized that any possibility of reaching compromises is out of the question until Washington halts its military activities in the region and on Iranian territory. Nevertheless, international experts caution against overestimating this rhetoric, pointing to clear signs of chaos within Iranian governance, where statements from various agencies often contradict one another, complicating the understanding of the country’s actual foreign policy direction.