Global energy markets are rapidly returning to normalcy. The resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz threatens to flood the market with oil just as refiners have begun securing alternative suppliers.

According to Bloomberg, amid stabilizing conditions, Brent prices plummeted by 30% in the second quarter, completely losing the premium they had gained during the conflict. Last Friday, futures traded below $72 per barrel, heading toward the $60 mark, a level not seen since January.

Informed sources report that leading European powers have come to terms with the new reality, acknowledging that they must pay transit fees to Iran and Oman for tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts caution that initial logistics may be unstable due to adjustments in insurance markets and residual congestion. However, commercial operators are already assessing shipping risks as manageable and are working to restore familiar routes.

Meanwhile, major investment banks foresee a significant oversupply in the market. Goldman Sachs anticipates crude surpluses as Middle Eastern traffic rebounds, while Morgan Stanley has lowered its forecasts twice in recent weeks due to these risks. Citi analysts have issued the most severe assessment, strongly recommending selling oil on any summer rebounds and predicting that Brent prices could decline to $60–65 per barrel by year-end.