On Friday, the EUR/USD pair showed low activity and consolidated below the 1.1645–1.1656 level. However, the upward movement did not continue, and today the bulls have already managed to counterattack and close above this level. Thus, the euro may continue rising toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. A consolidation below the 1.1645–1.1656 level will once again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the support level of 1.1594–1.1607.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous wave's low, while the most recent upward wave (still forming) has broken the previous peak. Thus, the trend has officially shifted to "bullish." It's difficult to call it strong, but in recent months the bulls have displayed only one thing—weakness. The Fed's monetary policy easing should give them additional strength, as the ECB does not intend to lower interest rates anytime soon.

On Friday, traders did not pay much attention to the news background. Even stronger eurozone GDP growth in the third quarter did not trigger bullish attacks. In the second half of the day, U.S. news provided equally weak support for the bears. Neither side had much desire to trade, preferring to wait for the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday this week. This meeting is the most important event of the week, though its significance is somewhat lower than usual. Typically, the market knows in advance what decision the Fed will make. That is also the case now. However, at the moment, neither the Fed nor traders have enough necessary information to be certain about anything. Recall that the effects of the shutdown are still being felt, even though a month has passed since it ended. Reports on labor market data, unemployment, and inflation for October and November are still unavailable to the trading community. Thus, the FOMC will likely decide to ease monetary policy, but what happens next is unclear. In this sense, the Fed meeting may be unexpected for traders, as the regulator will outline its future course.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. A rebound from this zone will again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. A consolidation above the 1.1649–1.1680 resistance level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator. The "bullish" trend has every chance of recovering.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the shutdown, but for now the data remains outdated—still from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish," thanks to Donald Trump, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 250,000, while short positions amount to 143,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most important factor for traders, as they may lead to numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for the United States. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy and the loss of the Fed's independence under Trump's pressure, especially with Jerome Powell stepping down in May next year.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – Germany Industrial Production (07:00 UTC).

On December 8, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which is not of particular interest. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be extremely weak or absent altogether.

EUR/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Short positions are possible today if the hourly chart closes below the 1.1645–1.1656 level, with a target of 1.1594–1.1607. Long positions may be opened with a target of 1.1718 if the market closes above the 1.1645–1.1656 level.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.