Analysis of trades and trading tips for the European currency

The first test of 1.1635 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. The second test at 1.1635 coincided with the MACD entering the overbought area, triggering Scenario No. 2 to sell; the euro did not actually fall.

This morning, the dollar continued to decline amid worsening geopolitical tensions over Greenland. The unexpected US territorial claims to this strategically important island provoked a wave of uncertainty. Investors, worried about a possible escalation of the conflict, began actively disposing of dollar assets and seeking more stable havens. European currencies, primarily the euro and the Swiss franc, experienced capital inflows. Gold also strengthened, confirming its status as a safe haven during instability. In the current situation, caution is necessary, and until the conflict is resolved, it is better not to rush into long positions in the dollar.

This morning, several economic indicators will be published, including Germany's producer price index and business sentiment indices for Germany and the euro area. These data will serve as key references for assessing the current state of the European economy and its ability to withstand global economic challenges. The German PPI will provide insight into inflationary processes within the country and the degree of pressure on the industrial sector. A print above forecasts may indicate stronger inflation. The ZEW business sentiment indices for Germany and the euro area act as leading indicators of future economic activity. Optimistic sentiment could presage economic growth, supporting the euro, while pessimistic readings would put pressure on EUR/USD.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for buying

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro around 1.1677 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1716. At 1.1716, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. You can count on euro gains only after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the MACD indicator is in the oversold area and the price tests 1.1649 twice. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels 1.1677 and 1.1716.

Scenarios for selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1649 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1613, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the MACD indicator is in the overbought area and the price tests 1.1677 twice. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels 1.1649 and 1.1613.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.