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07.07.2026 06:02 AM
The EUR/USD currency pair showed no movement on Monday, with overall volatility for the day less than 40 pips. This means the pair was virtually stagnant all day. Macroeconomic data had no impact on market sentiment, although the Eurozone retail sales report was weaker than expected, while the important ISM Services PMI in the U.S. met forecasts. Nevertheless, the market ignored these reports, as it has with many others in recent months. The European currency is gradually recovering, but the recovery is too weak. The British pound is rising much faster, which, in our view, is entirely justified. The euro, in essence, remains within a two-month downward trend. Despite the fact that the future tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has already been priced in, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has entered a phase of remission, the dollar continues to exhibit illogical high demand.
On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were miraculously formed on Monday, both of which were extremely weak. First, the pair slowly broke through the area of 1.1420-1.1432 from above to below, then from below to above. Thus, the first signal proved false, while the second may still yield traders a few dozen points of profit.
On the hourly timeframe, a two-month downward trend remains in place. Since the deal between Iran and the U.S. has been signed, the market has one less reason to buy the U.S. dollar. However, the market pays no attention to this fact and generally ignores nearly all factors in favor of the euro. Therefore, the current strengthening of the dollar lacks clear and understandable reasons. The correction could end at any moment.
On Tuesday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1354-1.1363 if the price consolidates below the 1.1420-1.1432 area. Buy trades can be maintained with a target of 1.1527-1.1531, as price overcame the 1.1420-1.1432 area yesterday.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1420-1.1432, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, and 1.1830-1.1837. On Tuesday, Germany will publish a report on industrial production, while the U.S. will release its weekly ADP labor market report. Both reports are secondary, so we do not expect any notable market reaction to this data.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
