On the hourly chart, GBP/USD fell to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3339 on Tuesday for the third time. A third consecutive rebound from this level would again favor the pound and some upward movement toward the 1.3381 and 1.3414 levels. Consolidation below 1.3339 would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.3272.

The market situation remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the new downward wave, which is still forming, broke the previous low. Thus, the bears now have the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh sharply improved bearish sentiment. A break of the current trend is now possible only above 1.3567.

There has been no significant news flow in the United Kingdom or the United States on Monday and Tuesday, apart from reports that the market itself never takes into account. For example, I do not believe that the weekly ADP report can evoke any significant reaction among traders when the monthly ADP report never does so. Thus, only tomorrow will information worthy of attention reach the market. On Wednesday, business activity indices for September will be published in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In the absence of more important releases, these are the key events of the week. Today, the bears made a third attempt to continue their advance, but the bulls are desperately defending the 1.3339 level. I would like to believe that the pound has finally found a bottom and that a bullish trend will begin from this level. In my view, the market has already sufficiently priced in the FOMC's monetary policy tightening.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD made another decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3348. A rebound from 1.3348 would allow for some upward movement in the pound toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. Consolidation below 1.3348 would favor a resumption of the decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3277. No new emerging divergences are observed on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,866, while the number of Short positions decreased by 2,605. The current gap between the number of Long and Short positions is effectively 74,000 versus 132,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still maintain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but this is now less certain because the news background has changed.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. There is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's monetary policy stance remains contradictory.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – ADP employment report (weekly) (12:00–15:00 UTC).

The September 22 economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The economic news background will have no influence on market sentiment on Tuesday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair is possible today if the hourly chart consolidates below 1.3339, with a target of 1.3272. Buying is possible on a rebound from 1.3339, with targets at 1.3381 and 1.3414. The first target has already been reached.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3557 to 1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.