On Tuesday, EUR/USD reversed in favor of the US dollar once again within a horizontal range with approximate boundaries at 1.1116 and 1.1274. A new downward move toward 1.1116 has begun. A rebound from 1.1116 would favor the euro and a potential recovery toward 1.1274. Consolidation below the 1.1081–1.1116 level would allow traders to anticipate a resumption of the bearish trend.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break above the previous peak. Since the September FOMC meeting, traders have been expecting at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to support the US dollar, while other factors are viewed by traders as secondary.

The news background on Tuesday once again undermined the bulls' hopes of establishing an upward trend. As a reminder, last Friday, the euro came under heavy pressure following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment data. Yesterday, Tuesday, the US inflation report put further pressure on the single currency. These reports showed that the US labor market recovered significantly in October following a weak reading in September, while the unemployment rate declined. At the same time, monthly inflation came in at 0.4%, lower than the previous month's figure but above market expectations.

This suggests that October's inflation reading supports the case for tighter monetary policy, while the current state of the labor market provides sufficient grounds for the Fed to implement such a move. However, there is one major drawback to this reasoning: the FOMC has already effectively signaled a monetary policy tightening in December. In other words, regardless of yesterday's inflation reading, the Fed would have raised interest rates at its next meeting, a move the market has been anticipating for several weeks. Thus, the market had reasons to buy the dollar yesterday, but the latest economic data should not be expected to trigger a much stronger appreciation of the US currency beyond the horizontal trading range.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar once again and consolidated below the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1221. The horizontal range on the hourly chart is currently more important than the reference points provided by Fibonacci retracement levels. Therefore, trading decisions should be based primarily on this range. No new developing divergences are visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 1,263 Long positions and opened 12,634 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 229,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 387,000. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is explained by the complicated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's willingness to continue tightening monetary policy. The market believes that the Fed will keep raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the longer term. Undoubtedly, various global developments, which have been abundant in recent years, influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record in terms of the number of unpredictable events. Therefore, the euro is waiting for a more favorable opportunity.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).
• European Union – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (09:45 UTC).

On November 11, the economic calendar contains two events that are unlikely to attract significant market attention. The impact of economic data on market sentiment on Wednesday may be limited or entirely absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Long positions may be considered if the pair reverses on the hourly chart near the two most recent bearish swings, with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1270. Short positions may be considered today if the pair consolidates below the 1.1081–1.1086 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0944.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.