Analysis of Monday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair started Monday with a sharp rally. Overnight, the euro appreciated by 100–120 pips, and the pair traded more calmly during the day. Over the weekend, no events or news could have triggered such a move. Of course, this isn't really about the euro's strength but the U.S. dollar's continued weakness. But who's surprised anymore by the dollar falling? Trump's position remains unchanged: either pay the U.S. more money or face tariffs, sanctions, etc. So on Monday, there wasn't a clear reason to sell the dollar, but overall, the market continues to shed U.S. currency.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe Monday, quite a few trading signals were formed, but the main movement occurred during the Asian trading session. Technically, buy trades could have been opened even overnight, as the price rebounded from the 1.1395–1.1413 area. Later in the day, there was a good and precise bounce from the 1.1571 level and another from the 1.1474–1.1481 area. Opening trades within the 1.1513–1.1535 zone didn't make sense, as it was too narrow and acted as a solid range. Overnight, the price bounced once again from the 1.1474–1.1481 area, offering novice traders another opportunity to go long—if they trade during the night.

Trading Strategy for Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its uptrend. After spending a week in consolidation, the new week began with a fresh surge. The upward movement is expected to continue as long as Trump keeps introducing and raising import tariffs. The market is not interested in anything other than the Global Trade War. When new tariffs are introduced, the dollar falls. When there aren't any, the market stalls—just like last week.

On Tuesday, the pair may continue upward as the market no longer needs new tariff headlines or escalations. As we warned earlier, the price can "spike" anytime.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following trading levels: 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1091, 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1189–1.1191, 1.1275–1.1292, 1.1330, 1.1395–1.1413, 1.1474–1.1481, 1.1513–1.1535, 1.1571, 1.1607–1.1622, 1.1666, 1.1689. No macroeconomic or fundamental events are scheduled for Tuesday, but Monday already showed us that the market may continue selling off the dollar even without any news.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.