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05.05.2025 05:35 PM
The USD/CHF pair remains under pressure at the start of the new week, attracting sellers for the second day in a row, weighed down by several factors. However, spot prices remain confined within the familiar range observed over the past two weeks.
The NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) employment report shifted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut from June to July by 25 basis points. Rising economic uncertainty tied to tariffs and President Trump's policies continues to weigh on the dollar, prompting investors to favor safer assets such as the Swiss franc.
Trump's rapidly shifting trade policy toward China continues to fuel uncertainty in the markets. In addition, renewed escalations in Middle East conflicts are contributing to increased geopolitical risks. Investors remain cautious, which affects their risk appetite.
Nonetheless, ahead of this week's key central bank events—specifically the Fed's interest rate decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday—investors are reluctant to aggressively sell the dollar. Today's release of the U.S. ISM Services PMI is seen as a potential short-term trading opportunity.
From a technical perspective, the nearest resistance for the pair lies at the 0.8275 level, followed by 0.8340. However, as long as the oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in negative territory, the path of least resistance for the USD/CHF pair is to the downside.
A decisive break below the psychological level of 0.8200 would accelerate the decline toward the next support at 0.8189. Failure to defend this zone could lead to deeper losses, potentially revisiting April's lows.
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