Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 143.67 price level occurred at a time when the MACD was just beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar, which resulted in a decline toward the target level of 143.15.

Today, U.S. trade balance data will be published. Unsatisfactory figures caused by the impact of implemented trade tariffs could exert negative pressure on the dollar, further amplifying the pressure on the USD/JPY pair observed during the first half of the day. Traders and analysts closely monitor this data as it serves as an important indicator of America's economic health and its competitiveness in the global economy. A growing trade deficit may indicate weakening demand for U.S. goods and services, negatively affecting economic growth. Poor results may exacerbate concerns about the prospects of the U.S. economy and weaken the dollar's exchange rate, while strong results could offer support. Traders are advised to consider this data when making investment decisions regarding U.S. assets.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 143.09 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 143.76 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 143.76, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). A rise in the pair today can be expected only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 142.64 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and cause a reversal upward. Growth toward 143.09 and 143.76 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below the 142.64 level (red line on the chart), which is expected to cause a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 142.21 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair may occur at any time today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 143.09 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and cause a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposing levels of 142.64 and 142.21 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually taken, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually taken, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.