empty
12.06.2025 03:55 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 12: Even Inflation Didn't Please the Dollar

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very differently throughout Wednesday. During the European trading session, the pair continued its sideways movement, which had persisted for several days. There was no macroeconomic background then, and the market was unimpressed by Donald Trump's new statements about signing a trade deal with China. After all, everyone understands the falsehood of such claims. During the second meeting in London, China and the U.S. merely agreed to remove some minor disagreements regarding the export of critical goods and materials—nothing more. However, the market was deeply concerned by the mass unrest that could soon engulf all of America or at least all major cities. It's already known that protesters are preparing to resist the National Guard strongly, and Trump is even considering calling in the regular army "to suppress the uprising."

Thus, even on Wednesday, the dollar had enough reasons to resume its decline. But what impressed the market most was the inflation report. It was precisely after its release that the dollar resumed its fall. According to the report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May remained at 2.8%, while forecasts expected 2.9%. Let's break it down: if inflation is rising or not falling, then the Federal Reserve is even less likely to resume a monetary easing cycle in the near future. However, the market had expected an increase in the figure, and the 2.8% result was unsatisfactory. Based on this rather formal rationale, the dollar continued to be sold off.

In the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were generated yesterday. Initially, the pair bounced off the critical line but failed to move down even 15 pips—a false signal. Later, the pair broke through the Kijun-sen line, allowing for long positions to be opened. Shortly thereafter, it bounced off the line from above, sparking a strong rally. The long position could be closed manually by evening since the nearest level was far away. However, the price may rise to 1.1534 by the end of the week.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT report is dated June 3. The chart above shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long been "bullish," and the bears barely managed to gain the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot confidently say that the dollar's decline will persist, but current global developments indicate this possibility.

We still see no fundamental factors for strengthening the euro, but one very significant factor is the decline of the dollar. The global downward trend persists, but what does the trend even matter now? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar might start growing again — but will he end them, and when?

The red and blue lines have crossed again, meaning the market returns to a "bullish" trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs among the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 1,500, while shorts dropped by 4,800. As a result, the net position increased by 3,300.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

In the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains a local uptrend despite two breaches of the ascending trendline. As before (over the last 4 months), the market reacts only to events related to Trump, his decisions, and the trade war. Since there is little positive news on these topics, the dollar continues to decline regardless. Note that Fed policy combined with the European Central Bank policy suggests a strong dollar rise. However, as mentioned, this factor (like many others) currently does not influence the market.

For June 12, we identify the following trading levels: 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1607, as well as Senkou Span B (1.1353) and Kijun-sen (1.1434) lines. Note that Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying signals. Don't forget to set your Stop Loss to break even once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction—this protects against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

No important events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone on Thursday, while in the U.S., only the less significant PPI and jobless claims will be released. Since the CPI was published yesterday, the producer price index is unlikely to influence market sentiment.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
  • Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
  • Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
  • COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.

Recommended Stories

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par GBP/USD el 12 de agosto. La tendencia se mantiene.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el lunes bajó ligeramente hacia una nueva línea de tendencia alcista, lo que en absoluto interrumpió la tendencia actual. Sí, el lunes pocos esperaban

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-08-12 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par EUR/USD el 12 de agosto. Un lunes vacío e inflación.

El par de divisas EUR/USD mostró un movimiento descendente durante el lunes, pero en general se negoció aproximadamente en el mismo rango que en los últimos días. El euro creció

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-08-12 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de transacciones con el par GBP/USD para el 11 de agosto. La libra se mantiene en calma, pero no cede posiciones.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el viernes tampoco mostró ningún movimiento interesante. Sin embargo, tampoco comenzó la corrección; la libra mantuvo las posiciones ganadas y conserva una tendencia alcista

Paolo Greco 04:31 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de transacciones con el par EUR/USD para el 11 de agosto. Flat y tres señales excelentes.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el viernes se negoció exclusivamente de forma lateral. El trasfondo macroeconómico ese día estuvo ausente, y los traders decidieron salir de fin de semana

Paolo Greco 04:31 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par GBP/USD el 7 de agosto. La libra ha recobrado el ánimo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles también reanudó su movimiento ascendente, gracias a Donald Trump. Recordemos que ayer Trump impuso aranceles del 25% contra India, pero anteriormente

Paolo Greco 04:24 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par EUR/USD el 7 de agosto. Trump vuelve a hundir al dólar.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles reanudó su movimiento ascendente. El contexto macroeconómico ayer estuvo ausente tanto en la Eurozona como en EE.UU., a excepción de un informe

Paolo Greco 04:24 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Cómo operar el par EUR/USD el 6 de agosto. Consejos sencillos y análisis de operaciones para principiantes

Análisis de las operaciones del martes: Gráfico de 1H del par EUR/USD. El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó moviéndose el martes con una volatilidad mínima y exclusivamente en dirección lateral

Paolo Greco 06:35 2025-08-06 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 5 de agosto. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). Los compradores de la libra muestran cada vez más actividad

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 5 de agosto. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). Los compradores de la libra muestran cada

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:36 2025-08-05 UTC+2

Cómo operar el par GBP/USD el 5 de agosto. Consejos sencillos y análisis de operaciones para principiantes

El par GBP/USD el lunes tampoco mostró ningún movimiento interesante, aunque sí presentó una inclinación alcista mínima. La volatilidad fue nula, por lo que no tuvo sentido operar

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-08-05 UTC+2

Cómo operar el par EUR/USD el 5 de agosto. Consejos sencillos y análisis de operaciones para principiantes

El par de divisas EUR/USD se movió exclusivamente de forma lateral el lunes y con una volatilidad mínima. Esperábamos que el mercado continuara procesando los eventos del viernes, pero

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-08-05 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.