empty
13.06.2025 12:31 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 13th (Review of Morning Trades)
In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1556 level and planned to base market entry decisions on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A rise and the formation of a false breakout around 1.1556 led to a short entry on the euro, resulting in a move of more than 30 points. The technical picture was not revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

Given the brief pause in the Israel–Iran conflict, the euro has slightly recovered, but further growth remains limited. In the second half of the day, we expect the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data. The market's reaction to these figures will likely be muted, especially given the geopolitical backdrop.

In the event of a euro decline, I will act according to the morning scenario: the focus remains on defending the 1.1507 support level, formed based on yesterday's results. A false breakout at this level would be a signal to buy EUR/USD, aiming for further bullish development and a retest of the 1.1556 resistance. A breakout and retest of this area would confirm the entry point, with a target at 1.1591. The furthest upward target will be 1.1628, where I plan to take profits.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no buyer activity around 1.1507, pressure on the pair will increase, potentially pushing it toward 1.1456. Only after a false breakout there will I consider long entries. Alternatively, I'll open long positions on a direct rebound from 1.1408, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers showed themselves in the first half of the day around 1.1556, which suggests that market anxiety remains. If the pair makes another push higher, a false breakout at that level — similar to the earlier one — would provide a signal to open short positions, targeting 1.1507. A breakout and consolidation below this range would confirm further selling toward 1.1456. The furthest downward target will be 1.1408, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and bears fail to act near 1.1556, buyers may push the pair higher to retest 1.1591. I will only consider selling there after a failed breakout. I plan to open short positions on a direct rebound from 1.1628, targeting a 30–35 point correction.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT (Commitments of Traders) report from June 3 showed a reduction in both long and short positions. The ECB's rate cut was fully anticipated, so it didn't alter the market's balance. Expectations that the central bank will now pause its easing cycle have supported the euro. A strong Eurozone GDP report also backs the case for further euro appreciation — so it's no surprise that short positions decreased more significantly than longs.

According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions fell by 1,540 to 202,786, while short positions dropped by 4,830 to 120,022. As a result, the gap between longs and shorts increased by 7,295.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving AveragesTrading is occurring near the 30- and 50-period moving averages, which points to a sideways market.

Note: The author uses hourly (H1) chart settings, which differ from standard daily (D1) moving averages.

Bollinger Bands If the pair declines, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.1510 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (helps define the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period: 50 – marked in yellow.
  • Moving Average – Period: 30 – marked in green.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12, Slow EMA – 26, Signal SMA – 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
  • Non-commercial traders – Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Long non-commercial positions – Total long open interest held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions – Total short open interest held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net non-commercial position – The difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders.

Recommended Stories

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de transacciones con el par GBP/USD para el 11 de agosto. La libra se mantiene en calma, pero no cede posiciones.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el viernes tampoco mostró ningún movimiento interesante. Sin embargo, tampoco comenzó la corrección; la libra mantuvo las posiciones ganadas y conserva una tendencia alcista

Paolo Greco 04:31 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de transacciones con el par EUR/USD para el 11 de agosto. Flat y tres señales excelentes.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el viernes se negoció exclusivamente de forma lateral. El trasfondo macroeconómico ese día estuvo ausente, y los traders decidieron salir de fin de semana

Paolo Greco 04:31 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par GBP/USD el 7 de agosto. La libra ha recobrado el ánimo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles también reanudó su movimiento ascendente, gracias a Donald Trump. Recordemos que ayer Trump impuso aranceles del 25% contra India, pero anteriormente

Paolo Greco 04:24 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar y análisis de las operaciones con el par EUR/USD el 7 de agosto. Trump vuelve a hundir al dólar.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles reanudó su movimiento ascendente. El contexto macroeconómico ayer estuvo ausente tanto en la Eurozona como en EE.UU., a excepción de un informe

Paolo Greco 04:24 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Cómo operar el par EUR/USD el 6 de agosto. Consejos sencillos y análisis de operaciones para principiantes

Análisis de las operaciones del martes: Gráfico de 1H del par EUR/USD. El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó moviéndose el martes con una volatilidad mínima y exclusivamente en dirección lateral

Paolo Greco 06:35 2025-08-06 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 5 de agosto. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). Los compradores de la libra muestran cada vez más actividad

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 5 de agosto. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). Los compradores de la libra muestran cada

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:36 2025-08-05 UTC+2

Cómo operar el par GBP/USD el 5 de agosto. Consejos sencillos y análisis de operaciones para principiantes

El par GBP/USD el lunes tampoco mostró ningún movimiento interesante, aunque sí presentó una inclinación alcista mínima. La volatilidad fue nula, por lo que no tuvo sentido operar

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-08-05 UTC+2

Cómo operar el par EUR/USD el 5 de agosto. Consejos sencillos y análisis de operaciones para principiantes

El par de divisas EUR/USD se movió exclusivamente de forma lateral el lunes y con una volatilidad mínima. Esperábamos que el mercado continuara procesando los eventos del viernes, pero

Paolo Greco 08:06 2025-08-05 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión americana del 31 de julio (análisis de las operaciones matutinas).La libra sufre otra oleada de ventas

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico de la mañana presté atención al nivel

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:34 2025-07-31 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión americana del 31 de julio (análisis de las operaciones matutinas). El dólar subió tras la decisión de la Fed

Ayer se formó solo un punto de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico de la mañana presté atención

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:34 2025-07-31 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.