Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are set for Monday, though they share a similar nature. Business activity indices for June's services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and the United States. No significant changes are expected in these indices, but it is worth noting that any deviation from forecasts could occur, and the market will react precisely to such deviations. The U.S. indices will carry less weight than the European ones, as the U.S. publishes its own "domestic" ISM indices.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Monday, key events include speeches by Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, as well as a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. However, since the Fed meeting was held this week, it is unlikely that Bowman and Waller will share any new or significant information with the market. Lagarde spoke on Friday but did not comment on monetary policy or the outlook for the key interest rate.

The most significant factor for the market remains the ongoing trade war, which has shown no signs of resolution yet. Other important themes include mass riots in the U.S., Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," the presence or absence of progress in trade negotiations with 75 countries, new tariffs, and increases in existing tariffs. The dollar could have counted on support from the Israel-Iran standoff, in which the U.S. is directly involved, but we believe the dollar has already exhausted the benefits of this event.

Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs may trade sluggishly as the macroeconomic releases will not be significantly important. However, there will be many reports, and new information from the White House may arrive over the weekend. Unless any surprises occur, we would expect a renewed rise in the euro and the pound.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.