Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3316 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The breakout and subsequent retest of 1.3316 provided a buying opportunity for the pound, but the pair did not reach significant growth. In the second half of the day, another false breakout at 1.3320 again allowed entry into the market, driving the pair up by more than 30 pips. Active selling from 1.3352 led to a rapid decline of more than 20 pips in the pound, but then the bulls took over.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

The news that the Federal Reserve does not plan to actively lower interest rates next year, while simultaneously beginning to purchase short-term bonds starting December 12, has left traders somewhat confused. However, given the trend toward a weaker dollar, the pound continued to rise along the trend. Today, in the first half of the day, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak, but given that there is little time left before the central bank's meeting, it is unlikely he will comment on interest rate prospects. In the event of a larger correction of the pair following yesterday's growth, I expect the first signs of buyers around the support level of 1.3352. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be a good opportunity to open long positions with the aim of further growth toward the resistance level of 1.3389 established yesterday. A breakout and retest of this range from above will increase the chances of GBP/USD strengthening, leading to the liquidation of sellers' stop orders and providing a suitable entry point for long positions, with a possible exit towards 1.3416. The furthest target will be the 1.3440 area, where I plan to take profits. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD and a lack of buying at 1.3352, pressure on the pair will intensify, leading to a reversal of yesterday's gains and a move towards the next support level at 1.3320. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from the low at 1.3287, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30-35 pips.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers of the pound faced another defeat yesterday, but not everything is straightforward. The Fed's mixed position could, at any time, turn in favor of the dollar, leading to a market reversal. If the pair continues to rise, I expect the first signs of bears only around the resistance level of 1.3389 established yesterday. Only the formation of a false breakout there will prompt selling of the pound, with the target being a move down to the support level of 1.3352. A breakout and retest of this range from below will deliver a more significant blow to buyer positions, leading to the liquidation of stop orders and opening a path to 1.3320, where moving averages favor the bulls. The furthest target will be the 1.3287 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD moves up with the trend and there is no active bearish action at 1.3389, buyers will have a good opportunity to continue developing the bullish trend, potentially leading to a surge towards 1.3416. I plan to open short positions there only on a false breakout. If there is no downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.3440, anticipating only a 30-35-pip intraday downward correction.

For Reference:

Due to the US government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The last relevant data is only from October 28.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), both long and short positions have increased. Pressure on the dollar remains—especially after many have begun to bet again that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates. At the same time, the BoE's policy remains cautious, indicating its clear plans to continue fighting inflation. The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be determined by new fundamental reports. The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 7,052 to 82,471, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 10,539 to 102,733. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 636.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting further pound growth.
• Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary will act as support around 1.3287.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average: (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average: (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator: (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.