Donald Trump does not give up attempts to take the Federal Reserve under control and personally direct monetary policy. The new-old US president pursues aggressive immigration, trade, and foreign policies, striving to reshape the whole world to his liking. The US economy holds up with dignity, but it still turned out unprepared for such radical transformations of the world order. Trump understands this well.

The leader of the US needs to establish control over the Fed to close the economic issue. If Trump controls monetary policy, he can lower the interest rate to any level. And a "loose" policy will stimulate economic growth. Trump will achieve high GDP growth rates and continue implementing radical changes in global trade architecture and geopolitics. This concept has a downside, but Trump is hardly concerned about it. If the rate is cut to 1–2%, inflation will begin to rise, which runs counter to the FOMC's independent interests. The Fed spent five years fighting high inflation, and now it turns out this indicator should be neglected.

Donald Trump also understands that the Fed remains independent in every sense. It does not report directly to Congress or the President and, accordingly, no official can receive sanctions "for disobedience." Therefore, the most logical solution is to replace a large part of the "hawks" with "doves." Better to say "replace most principled governors with tolerant ones."

Last year, a member of the FOMC, Adriana Kugler, had already left her post; then Trump attempted to dismiss Lisa Cook; now he is "working" to remove Jerome Powell, who has only 4 months left in his term. Personally, I am convinced that after Powell, or in parallel with Powell, Trump will try to remove other governors who do not wish to vote for easing.

And Trump's next target may be the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, who rather rashly supported Powell and the Fed's independence in a recent interview. Goolsbee said that the Fed's independence is needed for price stability, and price stability is needed by the American public. In his words, in countries where central banks lack independence from the government, inflation is usually high. He also implicitly criticized the prosecution of Jerome Powell, saying it only exacerbates the problem and complicates the work of a central bank that sets rates not at its own discretion but in accordance with its mandates.

Wave picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues building an upward segment of the trend. Donald Trump's policy and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US currency. Targets of the current trend segment may extend to the 25th figure. However, to reach the targets, the market must complete the construction of an extended wave 4. Right now, we only see the market's desire to keep this wave going. Therefore, in the near term, a decline to the 15th figure can be expected.

Wave picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective a-b-c-d-e structure in C of wave 4 appears complete, as does wave 4 as a whole. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C has presumably completed its formation, so in the near future, a downward wave or a set of waves may form.

Main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be one hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.