There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, but almost all of them are extremely important. In Europe, Germany, and the UK, Wednesday's event calendar is empty, but in the US, reports on Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wages will be released today. The first two reports largely determine the dollar's fate, as these data inform the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. On Friday, a third important inflation report will be published, which also directly influences the Fed's monetary policy.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
Among the fundamental events on Wednesday, only a few speeches from representatives of the Fed and the European Central Bank can be noted. Still, as we have already mentioned, there is little expectation for changes in the views of Fed and ECB representatives regarding monetary policy until new data on inflation, the labor market, and unemployment are released. The Fed is currently focused on maintaining the key interest rate to ensure the effects of the last three rate cuts are fully realized. Thus, hints of new monetary easing may only emerge following weaker labor market/unemployment data or in the case of slowing inflation. As for the ECB, Christine Lagarde made it clear last week that inflation must drop significantly below the 2% target before the ECB considers resuming monetary easing.
General Conclusions:
On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very calmly, as there are few significant events today. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1899-1.1908, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3643-1.3652. In the second half of the day, a storm may hit the market due to the US Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports. The market reaction is unpredictable.
Main Rules of the Trading System:
The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.
What's on the Charts:
Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
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*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
11.02.2026 07:03 AM
