This week, the US president continued his parade of contradictory statements regarding the Iranian crisis and the war. At the beginning of the week, Donald Trump reported once again about successful negotiations with certain people in Iran while simultaneously escalating the military presence in the region. Naturally, Trump insisted that peace is only possible on US terms, claiming that Iran is prepared to accept most of Washington's demands. Strangely enough, this information was partially confirmed on Tuesday. However, I want to emphasize to traders that on Monday the dollar rose, but on Tuesday and Wednesday it fell. In other words, the markets did not believe Trump but trusted Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The Iranian president did not make any statements yesterday that would have instilled optimism in the markets. Pezeshkian merely stated that Iran is ready for a ceasefire, but... on Iranian terms, not American ones. This brings us back to the situation a month ago, when active negotiations were also underway between Iran and the US to resolve contentious issues, mainly related to nuclear developments. Let's recall that a month ago, both sides were also inundating each other with demands and ultimatums, and the negotiating positions were at opposite ends of the spectrum. Therefore, if negotiations are indeed taking place now, I do not believe that Iran will suddenly abandon its nuclear weapons and developments.

In my opinion, the current situation can be described as a "stalemate." Many military experts believe that a ground operation by US troops in Iran would be pure folly. Certainly, the entire US fleet, both naval and air, could be dispatched to Iran, along with several hundred thousand troops. Even then, success would not be guaranteed, though the chances would be higher. But does Trump want victory at such a cost? Obviously not. Therefore, while the whole world remains in the hands of Iran, thanks to the US, this conflict shows no signs of resolution.

On Wednesday, Trump made another post on his social network, Truth Social, stating: "The new president of Iran turned out to be smarter than the previous one and asked the US for a ceasefire! We will consider this request only when the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked. Until that happens, we will continue to wipe Iran off the face of the earth and return it to the Stone Age." So, as soon as Pezeshkian's speech was delivered, Trump felt that his opponent was ready to concede a little and rushed back into battle with renewed vigor. This results in escalation without de-escalation.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (bottom picture) and, in the short term, has completed the formation of a downward wave set. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, my readers can expect price increases in the next week or two, with targets around 1.1666 and 1.1745, which correspond to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale. Further movements of the instrument will be entirely dependent on events in the Middle East.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I had anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an elongation in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not lead to a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure, within which the pound could rise to the 35-36 figures. Therefore, I believe now is a good time to buy.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in market movements, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There is no such thing as absolute certainty in market direction, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.