Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price level at 1.1643 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the appropriate entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.1608.

The recent slowdown in indirect talks between Iran and the United States, reportedly due to breaches of the ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza, triggered a strengthening of the US dollar in the latter half of the day. However, the initial dynamics were soon altered by a series of Trump statements. His rhetoric aimed at reducing tensions helped calm the markets. Given Trump's significant influence on the US political scene and global financial processes, his comments halted the dollar's strengthening.

This morning, important data regarding the Eurozone's consumer price index (CPI) for May is anticipated. Further increases are expected, which may significantly affect the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Current forecasts suggest that the core CPI in the Eurozone will show a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the basic CPI, excluding energy and food prices, may rise by 2.4%. This reflects ongoing supply chain issues that contribute to rising production costs. Additionally, high energy prices remain a primary factor supporting inflationary pressure.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1662 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1705. At level 1.1705, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to grow after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1643 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1662 and 1.1705.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1643 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1608, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return if the reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1662 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1643 and 1.1608.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.