Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test of 1.1595 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for buying the euro was correct. However, after rising by 10 points, the upward potential quickly ran out.

The euro will spend the second half of the day amid a light economic calendar, as no important US data is expected, with the G20 meeting being the only event in focus. In theory, comments from Fed officials could provide some additional market interest, but it is difficult to rely on them. Following Warsh's speech on Friday, which set a hawkish tone, the market already has clear reference points, and these continue to determine the dollar's behavior. For the single currency, this means continued pressure. As long as the dollar is supported by the Fed's hawkish stance and there are no fresh catalysts for a reversal, EUR/USD will remain dependent on the broader market backdrop and will most likely move within a narrow range.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1604 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.1621. At 1.1621, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Today, the euro's rise can only be expected as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1594 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1604 and 1.1621 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1594 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1581, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return in response to hawkish statements. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun declining from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1604 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1594 and 1.1581 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.