Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3318 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

The pound found little support today. The UK economic calendar was almost empty, and GBP/USD came under renewed selling pressure. This is particularly noticeable following yesterday's session, when the pound appeared to be the most resilient currency against the dollar among its peers, supported by an unexpectedly strong CBI retail sales report. The US dollar is clearly the main focus ahead of the Fed meeting. The market expects rates to remain unchanged but is prepared for hawkish rhetoric, while strong US economic data in the second half of the day could reinforce these expectations.

September durable goods orders will be the first release. They are expected to rise by 0.6% after declining by 0.1% the previous month. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will follow, with a forecast of 80.5 compared with 81.9 previously. New home sales are expected to reach 649,000, down from 684,000. These indicators could point in different directions, but the overall conclusion is straightforward. If the figures exceed forecasts, the dollar will receive additional support, risk assets will come under significant pressure, and GBP/USD may struggle to hold its current levels.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3324 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3353 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3353, the plan is to close buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move back from that level. A rise in the pound today is possible if US economic data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3310 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3324 and 1.3353.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3310 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3285, where the plan is to close sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move back from that level. Strong downward pressure on the pound could return if US economic data are positive. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3324 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3310 and 1.3285.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when deciding whether to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.