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29.10.2026 05:54 AM
The GBP/USD pair posted a modest rise on Wednesday that looks more like a correction of a correction. In our view, sterling began an uptrend about two weeks ago, so the recent decline is simply a correction. Price failed to hold below the Senkou Span B line, so the upward bias remains. Last night the Federal Reserve released the results of its penultimate meeting for the year, but traders learned nothing new or market-moving. The dollar fell as expected but only weakly. Sterling still looks well positioned to strengthen further: the Bank of England may begin a tightening cycle next week, and daily/weekly technicals point to upside at least toward 1.3650. Accordingly, we continue to expect sterling to rise. Recall that in 2026 the pound has traded flat, and its technical picture now differs markedly from the euro's. Thus, normally correlated euro and pound may show very different dynamics in the near term. We already see the market largely ignoring European Central Bank tightening; next week we'll see whether it treats a BoE hike differently.
Technically, sterling continues to form a new uptrend. A correction is possible, but price must stay above the Senkou Span B line—a drop below it would invalidate the uptrend. A clean trendline has not been drawn yet because two clear extremes are missing.
On the 5-minute TF, four buy signals formed on Wednesday, but no strong intraday rally occurred. The first two signals and the last (formed overnight) were accurate enough to trade; the third signal in the 1.3301–1.3309 area was unreliable because it coincided roughly with the Fed announcement, when the market was a bit nervous.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated selling for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend persisting. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand remains high in 2026. The U.S.–Iran war is formally on pause but could resume soon. The Fed's changed monetary stance also supports the dollar, and the ascending trend line was breached; however, it was broken amid a flat, so we do not consider the uptrend complete.
In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly TF. Trade tensions will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim, directly and indirectly, to weaken the U.S. currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (dated October 20), the "Non-commercial" group opened 10,000 BUY contracts and closed 16,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 26,500 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a logical, orderly uptrend, with corrections against it. On the daily and weekly timeframes, price cleared liquidity from recent lows and remained inside sideways channels. Therefore, the pound is expected to rise at least to the 1.3650 level, the upper boundary of the daily sideways channel. Reasons for the pound's rise are not required, just as reasons were not required for the dollar's rise over the past one and a half to two months.
For October 29 we highlight the following important levels for trading — 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3277) and the Kijun-sen (1.3339) can also provide signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so traders should account for this when determining trading signals.
No important events or releases are scheduled in the UK today, while the U.S. will publish significant Q3 GDP and PCE inflation reports. Traders should not miss these releases. While the PCE report is unlikely to change trader sentiment much since the Fed meeting has already occurred and the next outcome is largely priced in, the GDP print could provoke market moves.
Traders can consider 1.3277 and 1.3248 as targets for short positions if price holds below the 1.3301–1.3309 area. A rebound from the 1.3301–1.3309 area makes 1.3369–1.3377 targets for long positions.
