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04.11.2026 10:45 AMEUR/USD traded sideways below the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1220 on Tuesday, but on Wednesday the pair reversed in favor of the euro and closed above the 1.1220 level. Thus, the upward move may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1325, and the bulls are finally close to breaking the downward trend. However, a close below 1.1220 would once again allow for some decline toward the 1.1081–1.1086 support level.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous peak. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide strong support for the US currency, while other factors are viewed by traders as secondary.
On Tuesday, the only significant economic release was the US report on job openings, which came in above market expectations. However, by that time, traders had already shifted their full attention to the congressional elections. This morning, it became known that the Democrats had won both chambers of Congress, prompting another retreat by the bears. However, the US elections are not the only important event on Wednesday that could potentially support the euro. In a few hours, the European Union will release its October inflation report. The Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise to 4%, which would leave the ECB with virtually no room for maneuver: another monetary policy tightening would be necessary in December. Although the market has paid little attention to ECB rate hikes in recent months, things may be different this time. It cannot be denied that monetary policy tightening by a central bank should support its currency. Therefore, a rise in EU inflation today could trigger renewed bullish activity.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and closed above the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1221. Thus, the upward move may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.1325. A close below 1.1221 would once again favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No new emerging divergences are observed. The bulls have not yet broken the downward trend.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,225 Long positions and 13,595 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 231,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 374,000. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more often than it is bought. This is attributed to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's desire to bring inflation down. The market believes that the Fed will raise interest rates for as long as necessary.
Overall, over the long term, major market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro. Events of various kinds around the world—which have been plentiful in recent years—undoubtedly affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. And 2026 could set a record for the number of events that could not have been predicted in advance. The euro is therefore waiting for its opportunity.
On November 4, the economic calendar contains at least four important releases. The impact of economic data on market sentiment throughout Wednesday could be significant.
Long positions were possible after the pair closed above 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. These positions can remain open today. Short positions are possible after the pair closes below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target.
The Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.
