Analysis of Friday's Trades:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair showed a rather predictable upward movement on Friday, and the new week began with new growth. It seemed logical, as the events of Friday could not, in theory, support the US dollar. However, in our view, the US dollar fell too weakly given the scale and number of important news items on the last trading day of the previous week.

To start, the business activity indices in the Eurozone and Germany showed positive results. Furthermore, the US GDP report for the fourth quarter was twice (!!!) weaker than forecasts. In the evening, the US Supreme Court annulled most of Donald Trump's trade tariffs, ruling they were illegal, but the president immediately imposed new tariffs of 10%, raising them to 15% on Saturday. Thus, all tariffs remain in effect in one form or another, and some have even increased. We believe these reasons were enough to see a much more significant decline in the dollar. However, perhaps the market simply has not had the time to digest this information.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, two excellent buy signals were formed. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.1745-1.1754 area, and in the American session, it repeated the trick. Thus, beginner traders had the opportunity to open one or even two long positions, with one yielding a profit by Friday. If traders carried the trade over to Monday, it closed at the Take Profit, as the 1.1830-1.1837 area was fully reached.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the downward correction has been canceled, as the price has settled above the descending channel. At the beginning of 2026, a long-term upward trend has resumed, so we expect new growth for the euro. The overall fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the US dollar, so we fully support further upward movement.

On Monday, beginner traders may consider short positions if the pair rebounds from the 1.1830-1.1837 area, targeting 1.1745-1.1754. A price consolidation above the area of 1.1830-1.1837 would allow for long positions with a target of 1.1899-1.1908.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, a business climate index will be published in Germany, and that is all the news scheduled for Monday. We believe that the data received last week and, overall, in 2026, could provoke a much stronger rise in the pair.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.