The global tech rally stalled this week. Nasdaq-100 futures are already down 1% today, meaning the index's three-day advance will likely end in a sell-off by the weekend. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%. European stocks are set for a modest gain at the open.

Disappointing results from two big names triggered yesterday's market drop. Alphabet shares plunged 10% after the close after revenue missed expectations, fuelling fears that Google is losing ground to AI competitors despite spending hundreds of billions on the technology. Samsung Electronics slid 4% after the company did not announce a new shareholder payout program and reported net profit below analysts' estimates. Korea's Kospi fell on that news. Not all reports were bad: Microsoft rose 2.9% in after-hours trading on strong cloud sales, and Oracle earlier jumped 11% after issuing a long-term free-cash-flow outlook.

Because expectations were already very high, the market is punishing companies that fail to beat them. Stocks can fall even on otherwise decent results if profits don't exceed forecasts. The market increasingly demands proof that huge AI investments will translate into profit quickly enough to justify lofty valuations.

More tests are coming. Amazon reports today, and Apple publishes results next week. The ECB decision is due today and is expected to leave rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow and is also expected to hold. In the US, the core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — will be released. Recall that the Fed yesterday held rates in a 10–2 vote, and Kevin Warsh said at the press conference that there are no firm conclusions on policy yet.

After the Fed decision, Treasury prices rose, and two-year yields, which are especially rate-sensitive, fell 2 basis points to 4.68%; 10-year yields also slid 2 points to 5%. The market reads this as a sign of Warsh's caution, possibly related to excessive AI optimism. The weakness in gold and bitcoin further confirms that bonds are reclaiming their role as the primary safe haven.

In the Middle East, oil eased on fresh diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing renewed US strikes on Iran. Brent lost 1.2% to trade at $113.90 a barrel. Yesterday, oil rose on reports of a possible campaign after the elections; today's decline shows how quickly the market reacts to any signs of talks.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

The buyers' main task today is to push through immediate resistance at 7,737. That would help confirm upside and open the way to a move toward 7,756. Equally important for bulls is holding control above 7,774 to strengthen buyers' positions. On a downside move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must step in around 7,718. A breach would quickly drive the instrument back to 7,698 and open the path to 7,679.