S&P 500 keeps rising despite slowing inflation

On the surface, everything looks benign: the S&P 500 is trading upwards for a second consecutive day, inflation is cooling faster than expected, and Wall Street traders have sharply pared back bets on Fed tightening. Behind the rally, however, there are details that temper the optimism.

Producer prices rose by 4.7% y/y in June, below consensus. Falling energy costs eased price pressures, Treasury yields declined, and money markets now push out a policy rate increase to the end of the year (not before December). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments that the AI investment boom will exert upward pressure on prices were read by markets as further justification for keeping rates on hold in July. Follow the link for more details.

US dollar index pauses in consolidation after slide

The US dollar index (USDX) ends the week consolidating around a key short-term support at 100.49 (200-EMA on the 4-hour chart) after a sharp drop driven by weaker-than-expected US inflation data. Monthly CPI fell by 0.4% (the largest monthly decline since April 2020), annual CPI slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%, and PPI also disappointed — a combination markets interpreted as a reason for a Fed pause.

These prints cut the odds of a July rate hike to roughly 10% on CME FedWatch, and the dollar lost more than 1% over two sessions. Economists caution that the dollar's decline could be overdone: Middle East geopolitical risk and relative US economic resilience keep the possibility of a rebound alive. Follow the link for more details.

US consumer prices see biggest monthly drop in six years

US consumer prices declined sharply in June, marking the biggest monthly drop in six years, slightly reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve and lowering the odds of immediate further rate hikes.

CPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month (consensus -0.1%, May +0.5%). Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% year-on-year (consensus 3.8%, May 4.2%). Core CPI (ex food and energy) rose by 2.6% year-on-year (consensus 2.8%, May 2.9%). Follow the link for more details.