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26.10.2026 06:00 AMThe EUR/USD currency pair again moved with minimal volatility on Friday, showing little reaction to macroeconomic events. PMIs for the euro area, Germany and the U.S. were published on Friday. European reports came in weaker than the market expected, but not disastrously, so the euro fell only a few dozen pips. U.S. indices beat forecasts, but the dollar failed to rally after their release. Thus the morning decline in the euro may well have been random rather than meaningful. After all, EUR/USD has traded inside the 1.1190–1.1260 sideways channel for a full week. Any movement inside a sideways channel can be random. Overall, the market was quiet this week. News and releases were minimal, and this week the "hit parade" of important events begins: first the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, then the European Central Bank meeting in the euro area, and next week the U.S. midterm elections and Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data. So the lull is clearly temporary.
Technically, the downtrend may be over since the trend line has been broken. For five consecutive weeks, the market bought the dollar at any excuse, and now it cannot even overcome the nearest resistance at 1.1274. We still do not see market participants willing to buy the euro.
On the 5-minute TF, no trading signals formed on Friday. The price spent the day in the 1.1191–1.1221 area, defined by two Ichimoku lines and the 1.1221 level. Thus, only a breakout from this range will produce a trading signal.
The latest COT report is dated October 20. On the weekly TF, the net position of non-commercial traders remains clearly bearish and fell markedly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Over the past eight months, traders have been disposing of the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar once served as a reserve currency.
However, we still do not see any fundamental factors for further U.S. dollar strengthening. The war in the Middle East made the dollar super-attractive for a while, and the Fed's monetary stance surprised the dollar for the second time this year. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (the trend line), but the longer-term uptrend will remain valid. Nevertheless, in recent weeks the market has priced in only positive factors for the dollar and ignored everything else.
The arrangement of the red and blue indicator lines points to the bears' advantage. During the last reporting week, long positions among the "Non-commercial" group rose by 3,500, while short positions increased by 500. Accordingly, the net position rose by 3,000 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair finally has the opportunity to form an uptrend. If you also look at the daily and weekly TFs, it becomes clear that the chances of a strong and lasting trend remain high. However, for the euro to rise, it must be bought. Over the past week and a half, we have not observed any willingness in the market to buy the euro. Therefore, based on market sentiment, we would say a new decline is more likely.
For October 26 we highlight the following levels for trading — 1.1092, 1.1154–1.1165, 1.1221, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1191) and the Kijun-sen (1.1208). Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so account for this when determining trading signals. Remember to move your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against losses if the signal proves false.
On Monday, no important releases or events are scheduled in the EU or the US, and the German business-climate report is unlikely to provoke any market reaction. Thus, most likely we face a classic "boring Monday."
Traders can consider short positions near 1.1154–1.1165 and 1.1092 if price holds below 1.1191–1.1221. If the price holds above the 1.1191–1.1221 area, consider a target of 1.1260–1.1274 for long positions.
