Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1154 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and missed the downward move.

Relatively strong eurozone data failed to support the euro. Private sector lending rose by 3.1% in September, exactly as expected, while M3 came in at 3.5%, unchanged from August. However, Spain's unemployment rate in the third quarter was worse than forecast, at 10.18% versus expectations of 9.90% and the previous reading of 9.87%. The reason is that market movements are driven by expectations. Traders prefer to position for a stronger dollar following the Fed meeting rather than for euro appreciation, as both the US and European central banks are generally expected to maintain a hawkish tone.

The single currency now faces a challenging second half of the trading day. US economic data could strengthen the dollar while the euro is already losing ground, and the market is particularly sensitive to incoming data ahead of the Fed meeting. The main release will be the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, forecast at 80.5 after 81.9 previously. Another reading above expectations is unlikely to support the euro. September durable goods orders, which indicate business demand for equipment, are expected to rise by 0.6% after declining by 0.1% in the previous period. New home sales are also due, with a forecast of 649,000, along with the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Overall, these indicators are expected to remain within their usual ranges. However, stronger-than-expected results would support the dollar and put risk assets under pressure. This would be particularly unfavorable for the euro, as Christine Lagarde previously stated that eurozone inflation would remain significantly above the target until the first half of 2027. The ECB meeting on October 29 is also expected to result in no change in policy rates.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1155 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1180. At 1.1180, the plan is to close the position and consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today is possible if US economic data are weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1143 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1155 and 1.1180.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1143 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1115, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move back from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1155 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1143 and 1.1115.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when deciding whether to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.