Bitcoin and Ethereum continue a correction that had been building for several weeks. Notably, the last two major crypto market drivers were more negative than positive. Central banks (especially the Federal Reserve) continue to tighten monetary policy, which boosts demand for safe havens rather than for Bitcoin. The Clarity Act remains only a bill; if Democrats win control of Congress, there is a real chance the bill will never become law. Thus, the fundamental case for further crypto market gains looks shaky. We do not deny that the asset can rise on any news — the recent dollar rally is proof of that — but currently there are no reliable technical signals except a highly questionable deviation on the 4-hour timeframe.

Meanwhile, US investor Jason Calacanis said Bitcoin may never set a new record price. He expects "digital gold" to fall to $57,000 within the next 12 months and warned that a difficult period is only beginning. Calacanis pointed to capital outflows from ETF products that have persisted through most of 2026. That is another reason it will be extremely hard for Bitcoin to form a sustained bullish trend soon. First, net flows into ETFs have been negative more often than positive in 2026. Second, many experts say the last leg up in the leading crypto was driven largely by futures positioning — a weak foundation for a durable trend. Spot demand remains low.

Calacanis also noted that Bitcoin holders used to persuade others to buy coins, but interest in the flagship cryptocurrency is fading. He called Bitcoin a "dead network" that offers holders nothing beyond value preservation. He urged investors to allocate to the artificial intelligence sector, which he argued would bring far greater benefits to humanity. That final claim is debatable, but AI does appear more practically useful today than Bitcoin. Keep in mind that stablecoins already perform the basic function of digital money well, while Bitcoin remains predominantly an investment instrument without intrinsic physical utility.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin shows signs of the start of a new bullish trend. This trend began, as is often the case, with a pump that lacks clear, specific drivers. However, according to the daily chart, Bitcoin may still fall in the near term: the price has reacted to the two latest bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. Traders should also note that a break beyond the sideways channel on the daily chart could be a deviation — a deep deviation, but a deviation nonetheless. If so, Bitcoin could head toward $70,800 and even preserve the downtrend that began last year. We believe short positions are the most relevant in the near term. The lower-edge deviation on the 4-hour chart does not look convincing, and a breakout of the 4-hour range would allow the move to the downside to resume.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

The daily technical picture for Ethereum has changed completely. Ethereum now looks poised to develop a new uptrend. However, bulls can only reliably base that view on the weekly chart, where Ethereum is targeting $4,800 — the upper band of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the first bearish FVG did not produce a strong price reaction, while Bitcoin did react to its own FVGs — and we remember that Ethereum's price is about 80–90% correlated with Bitcoin. With Bitcoin beginning to correct, Ethereum also moved down. Therefore, we expect further declines in the near term. Ethereum's targets are around $2,300 and below — down to $1,850 and $1,391. On the daily timeframe, Ethereum received a sell signal from the nearest FVG. Several sell signals formed on Bitcoin, so Ethereum does not even need its own additional signals to drop. We now wait for Bitcoin to exit its 4-hour flat before expecting further directional moves.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop-Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.